From Aoun’s Independence Address to the Pope’s Visit: Frem Warns Against a Repeat of the 1973 Scenario

The Chairman of Project Watan’s Executive Board, MP Neemat Frem, praised in a statement President Joseph Aoun’s Independence Day address, in which the President affirmed that “Lebanon reads the changes and is not living in denial - unlike some parties – and is prepared to keep pace with the new phase unfolding in the Middle East.

Frem described the President’s position as “extremely important, as he addressed the international community to affirm that the Middle East has entered a completely different phase, one in which the concepts of peace, openness, and integration are advancing.”

“Our responsibility as Lebanese is enormous,” he added, “and Lebanon is ready not only to implement the five points but also to confirm that no weapons remain south of the Litani River.”

He continued: “I believe we must inform the international community of our readiness to complete the remaining points – provided that it offers us support and assistance… for example, through holding a new Sharm el-Sheikh conference dedicated to Lebanon. The mechanism the President referenced carries significant implications, and it could extend from a procedural framework to international forces supporting the Lebanese Army.”

Frem then asked: “Will we seize this international initiative and embrace the path of Lebanon’s positive neutrality? Otherwise, we will be offering the same pretext that emerged in 1973 – with the difference that today’s landscape places Israel on one side and Syria on the other – a situation that could bring about the end of the Lebanon of 1920 and the collapse of its borders. Will Hezbollah seize this opportunity and land on the runway of salvation as a purely domestic political party, stripped of weapons, effective and organized, and detached from cross-border projects?”

“What is happening today takes me back to a particular scene in 1973, when Henry Kissinger was unable to reach Baabda Palace due to protests near Beirut Airport, so he landed in Rayak air base instead and visited President Suleiman Frangieh before heading to Damascus,” he explained. “On that day, it seemed as though the international community had concluded that the Lebanese state was incapable of maintaining its internal security, thus entrusting it to Hafez al-Assad.”

Frem stressed that “what we seek is the victory of the culture of life over opposing ideas and projects, and for Lebanon to firmly enter the new phase unfolding in the Middle East.”

“Why should we be ashamed to show videos of the Army taking control of Hezbollah positions in the South and confiscating weapons?” he questioned. “And why all this excessive anxiety over a step that would protect everyone?”

He pointed out that “the U.S. Army views the Lebanese Army as its younger sibling. It has spent more than $15 billion assisting it, and what it is doing today falls within the framework of oversight and follow-up, because much is required of it and it must take swift decisions.”

Frem added: “We must move into a different phase that may pave the way for a ceasefire or peace agreements in the region. We must do everything that serves Lebanon’s interest – while the whole world is moving ahead of us.”

“Further delay in joining the regional track of change may leave us effectively ‘assigned’ to someone else – Tom Barrack’s remarks are the clearest indication of that,” he warned. “If war breaks out this time, it could mirror the 1973 scenario, when the international community concluded that Lebanon needed guardianship – a major disaster that would lead to a change of entity. Therefore, I hope everyone shows enough awareness to protect the Lebanese entity, which is unique in its sectarian diversity. I fear that war will erupt if negotiations do not begin; and these negotiations must be led by the Lebanese state in every sense of the word, as I fear that some may obstruct the process so that negotiations become a card in the hands of another party.”

On another note, Frem stated that the resumption of exports to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will begin in less than a month – “reflecting a sense that the Lebanese state is regaining its cohesion and that the administrative sector is making slow yet genuine progress in the right direction.”

“Still,” he added, “we have a long road ahead to restore the confidence needed to bring investments back into the country – including reaching an agreement with the IMF, closing the financial gap, and correcting the banking situation.”

Frem also addressed the upcoming visit of Pope Leon XIV to Lebanon, saying that “the Holy Spirit inspired the Pope to visit Lebanon, as though He were capturing lightning bolts and steering danger away from us.”

“The visit of the Supreme Pontiff – his first outside the Vatican – carries profound significance. I consider it a rescue visit, because the Lebanon of 1920 faces a geopolitical threat, and because the Christian presence in the region, along with the sectarian harmony among all its components, is a treasure that cannot be treated as a mere detail,” he concluded.